Methodology

Changes and ranges

• Last chg: versus the previous observation of the series (the previous day for daily, the previous month for monthly series).
• 1W / 1M / 1Y: versus the last observation on or before the same calendar date one week, month or year earlier. YTD: versus the last observation of the previous year.
• 52W low / high: lowest and highest observation of the last 12 months.
• Volatility (FX): standard deviation of daily log returns, annualised with √252.

Choosing between sources

• One series = one source, always named. Different sources are never spliced into one series, because their methodologies differ.
• The highest-frequency source is primary for the same instrument (for example daily Brent from EIA); monthly, quarterly and yearly views are calculated from it with the resolution switch.
• Monthly prices come from the World Bank Pink Sheet. The IMF is an automatic fallback only where both measure the same thing (less than 2 % apart over six months); it is used when the World Bank file fails or is a month or more behind, and the series is then labelled “(fallback)”.

FX

ECB reference rates are quoted as units of currency per euro. Rates against any other base are derived via the euro: CCY per base = (CCY per EUR) / (base per EUR).

Bonds

Euro area curve: ECB AAA-rated central government spot yields. US curve: Treasury constant maturity yields. EU 10Y: ECB long-term interest rates for convergence purposes (monthly averages). Spreads: country 10Y minus Germany 10Y, in basis points.

Power prices

• Europe, daily: Ember daily averages of day-ahead prices (EUR/MWh).
• Europe, hourly: Energy-Charts day-ahead prices by bidding zone; 15-minute prices are averaged to hours (UTC).
• United States: EIA next-day peak, volume-weighted average price at each hub (USD/MWh).
• Australia: AEMO 5-minute regional reference price; daily average per trading day and hourly averages (AEST).

TYNDP 2024 scenarios

Border flows sum every modelled line of a border (plain, project and offshore-hub links); intra-country links are not counted as trade. Country values sum all model nodes of a country. NT+ reconciles exactly with the official yearly balances; DE/GA grid nodes reconcile, residuals sit in behind-the-meter EV and prosumer sub-nodes.

Freshness

A series is flagged when its source has not published for 7 days (daily series) or 120 days (monthly series, dated at the start of the reference month). World Bank monthly commodity prices are published in the first days of the following month.